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Primeira LigaSun 11 Oct, 22:30 EATEstádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca vs Estrela prediction

AroucaHome46%to win
1.69 : 1.30expected goalsDraw 25%
EstrelaAway29%to win
Shujaa safe tipOver 1.5 goals1.29

Our tips

Locked two hours before kick off
Safe tip77%
Over 1.5 goalsMost likely to win
Fair 1.292 units
Bold tip32%
Estrela to winBigger price, loses more often
Price 3.20+1.3% value1 unit

Shujaa verdict

From results, prices, form and rest

Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela is Arouca to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Arouca recent form-1%Estrela recent form+1%

Good to know: Each reading is capped, so no single headline can swing a tip. How it works

Form and head to head

Newest game first
AroucaDLDWL
  • Dat Sporting CP2-2
  • Lv Santa Clara1-2
  • Dat Estoril0-0
  • Wv Maritimo2-1
  • Lat FC Porto0-2
EstrelaLDWDW
  • Lv Académico de Viseu0-2
  • Dat Rio Ave3-3
  • Wv Braga2-1
  • Dv FC Famalicao2-2
  • Wat C.D. Nacional3-2

In numbers, Arouca red and Estrela green

1.5Points per game0.8
1.6Goals scored per game1.4
1.3Goals conceded per game1.6
30%Clean sheets15%

Last meetings

  • Arouca1-0Estrela
  • Estrela3-1Arouca

Team records

Last 20 games, all competitions
AroucaEstrela
20Games played20
9Wins3
3Draws8
8Losses9
31Goals scored27
25Goals conceded33
1.6Scored per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game1.6
6W 1D 2LHome record2W 4D 4L
3W 2D 6LAway record1W 4D 5L
30%Clean sheets15%
55%Both teams scored60%
65%Over 2.5 goals65%

Good to know: Green marks the better number of the two.

Goals and markets

Chance and fair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.86
Both teams to score60%1.67
Arouca or draw71%1.41
Estrela or draw54%1.85
Arouca win and over 2.531%3.24
Estrela win and over 2.519%5.31

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
2-19.3%
1-07.8%
1-27.2%
2-07.2%

Price check

BetChancePriceValue
Arouca to win45%2.10-4.6%
A Draw28%3.40-5.2%
Estrela to win32%3.20+1.3%
Over 2.5 goals54%1.83-1.1%
Under 2.5 goals48%1.83-11.9%
Arouca -0.545%2.00-10.4%
Estrela +0.557%1.65-5.9%

Good to know: The small grey number is the fair price. If your bookmaker pays more, the bet has value.

Match preview

Arouca vs Estrela: Arouca are favourites
  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Arouca 46%, the draw 25% and Estrela 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Arouca the favourite at 2.10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Arouca took 5 points from their last 5 games and Estrela took 8 from 5. Estrela come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Arouca won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Estrela won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Arouca score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Estrela score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Arouca games and 13 of Estrela games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Arouca won 1 and Estrela won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Arouca 1, Estrela 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Arouca form

Arouca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Estrela form

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Arouca won 1, Estrela won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arouca 1, Estrela 0.

Our call

We expect Arouca to score about 1.7 goals and Estrela about 1.3. That points to Arouca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Estrela to win at 3.20.

Questions people in Kenya ask

Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?

Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela is Arouca to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Arouca vs Estrela?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Arouca to score 1.7 goals and Estrela 1.3.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Arouca last 20 games and 12 of Estrela last 20.

How are Arouca playing?

Arouca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Estrela playing?

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Arouca and Estrela last met?

It ended Arouca 1, Estrela 0. In the last 2 meetings Arouca won 1 and Estrela won 1.

What is the best bet for Arouca vs Estrela?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Good to know: Answers change as prices move. Every page is checked again every 30 minutes.

18+Read this before you bet

  • There are no sure bets. Every tip on this page is a chance worked out from data about Arouca against Estrela. A tip at 70 percent still loses about three times in ten. Anyone selling a sure bet or a fixed match is lying.
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