How our predictions are made
Every tip on KenyaPredictions comes from one model. Here is what it reads, what it does with it, and how it checks itself.
The Shujaa Model reads a year of results, works out the chance of every score, adjusts for form, rest and team news, compares its chance with the bookmaker price, and grades every tip in public after the game.
Good to know: No model knows the future. Our numbers are chances, not promises.
- 1
It reads a year of results
For every league we keep a year of finished games, with recent games counting more. From them it works out how much each team scores and concedes, at home and away.
- 2
It turns strength into scores
Those numbers give an expected goal figure for each side, which becomes the chance of every score from 0-0 upwards. 1X2, over and under, both teams to score, double chance and correct score all come from that one grid, so they always agree.
- 3
It adds what results miss
Form from every competition, the number of rest days since the last game, and injury or suspension news all move the numbers a little. Each is capped, so no single headline can swing a tip.
- 4
It checks the price
The bookmaker margin is removed from the price to see what the market really thinks. Where our chance is higher than the price suggests, that is a value tip. Gaps that look too big are treated as our mistake, not a gift.
- 5
It grades itself in public
Tips lock two hours before kick off. After the game each is graded on its own and stays on our results page. Those grades feed back into a correction that makes the next tips more honest.
What we will never do
- Sell a sure bet or a fixed match.
- Hide a losing day.
- Change a tip after it locks.
- Tell anyone betting is a way to make a living.
Good to know: If a number on a page looks wrong, email kingbloggers100@gmail.com and we will check it.
Questions people in Kenya ask
Does artificial intelligence make the predictions?
No. Every number comes from the statistical model described here. Language tools only help write news from public reports and are never allowed to invent a number or a tip.
Why is it called the Shujaa Model?
Shujaa means hero in Swahili. The name matches our warrior, and the idea that a good tip needs courage to show its losses too.
Can the model be wrong?
Often. A 70 percent tip loses about three times in ten, and that is the model working. Judge it over hundreds of tips on the results page, not one weekend.
Where does the data come from?
Public sports feeds for fixtures, results and prices, and our own database of graded tips. We do not buy or copy tips.
Good to know: Answers change as prices move. Every page is checked again every 30 minutes.
18+Read this before you bet
- There are no sure bets. Every tip on this page is a chance worked out from data about football. A tip at 70 percent still loses about three times in ten. Anyone selling a sure bet or a fixed match is lying.
- Betting is not income. Never bet to pay rent, school fees or a loan, and never borrow to bet, including from mobile loan apps.
- 18 and over only. Betting under 18 is illegal in Kenya.
- Use licensed bookmakers. Only bet with operators licensed by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya. Prices here can change before you bet, so check them first.
- Gambling can be addictive. If it stops being fun, stop. Read our responsible betting page or visit Responsible Gaming Federation of Kenya.
Good to know: We are not a bookmaker and we do not take bets. Full details are in our disclaimer.