Rio Ave vs Estrela: Estrela shade it
- 1What our numbers say
The model gives Rio Ave 31%, the draw 27% and Estrela 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Estrela the favourite at 2.55.
- 2Recent form
Rio Ave took 3 points from their last 5 games and Estrela took 9 from 5. Estrela come in with the better run.
- 3Home and away
Rio Ave won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Estrela won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
- 4Goals
Rio Ave score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Estrela score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Rio Ave games and 12 of Estrela games in that run.
- 5Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Rio Ave won 2 and Estrela won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Rio Ave 2, Estrela 1.
- 6Where the value is
Estrela to win is priced at 2.55. Our fair price is 2.35, so the bookmaker pays about 8.4% more than it should.
The big picture
Rio Ave host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Mon 14 Sept, 20:45 at Estádio do Rio Ave. Our prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Estrela to win at 2.55.
Rio Ave form
Rio Ave have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.
Estrela form
Estrela have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 2 times in our records. Rio Ave won 2, Estrela won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Rio Ave 2, Estrela 1.
Our call
We expect Rio Ave to score about 1.2 goals and Estrela about 1.5. That points to Estrela to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our value bet is Estrela to win at 2.55. Our bold bet is Estrela to win and Over 2.5 at 3.81.