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ChampionshipSat 19 Sept, 17:00 EATTurf Moor

Burnley vs Derby County prediction

BurnleyHome49%to win
1.64 : 1.09expected goalsDraw 26%
Derby CountyAway25%to win
Shujaa safe tipOver 1.5 goals1.31

Our tips

Locked two hours before kick off
Safe tip76%
Over 1.5 goalsMost likely to win
Fair 1.312 units
Bold tip31%
Burnley to win and Over 2.5Bigger price, loses more often
Fair 3.271 unit

Shujaa verdict

From results, prices, form and rest

Our prediction for Burnley vs Derby County is Burnley to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Burnley recent form-4%Derby recent form-4%Burnley rest between games-5%Derby rest between games-5%

Good to know: Each reading is capped, so no single headline can swing a tip. How it works

Form and head to head

Newest game first
BurnleyLDLDL
  • Lat Swansea City1-3
  • Dat Wrexham1-1
  • Lv Bristol City1-2
  • Dv Middlesbrough1-1
  • Lat Norwich City1-4
Derby CountyLLLWL
  • Lv Birmingham City1-2
  • Lv West Bromwich Albion0-1
  • Lat West Ham United0-3
  • Wat Portsmouth2-0
  • Lv Swansea City0-3

In numbers, Burnley red and Derby green

0.4Points per game1.3
0.9Goals scored per game1.3
2.0Goals conceded per game1.4
10%Clean sheets25%

Team records

Last 20 games, all competitions
BurnleyDerby
20Games played20
0Wins8
8Draws1
12Losses11
18Goals scored25
40Goals conceded29
0.9Scored per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.4
0W 6D 4LHome record5W 1D 5L
0W 2D 8LAway record3W 0D 6L
10%Clean sheets25%
70%Both teams scored55%
50%Over 2.5 goals65%

Good to know: Green marks the better number of the two.

Goals and markets

Chance and fair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.31
Over 2.5 goals51%1.95
Over 3.5 goals29%3.42
Both teams to score54%1.84
Burnley or draw75%1.33
Derby or draw51%1.97
Burnley win and over 2.531%3.27
Derby win and over 2.514%6.95

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-010.0%
2-19.5%
2-08.7%
0-07.2%

Price check

BetChancePriceValue
Burnley to win49%1.80-11.3%
A Draw26%3.65-5.2%
Derby County to win25%4.20+3.9%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.80-7.4%
Under 2.5 goals49%1.91-7.3%
Burnley -0.552%1.71-11.4%
Derby County +0.548%1.91-7.7%

Good to know: The small grey number is the fair price. If your bookmaker pays more, the bet has value.

Match preview

Burnley vs Derby County: Burnley are favourites
  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Burnley 49%, the draw 26% and Derby County 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Burnley the favourite at 1.80.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Burnley took 2 points from their last 5 games and Derby County took 3 from 5. Derby County come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Burnley won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Derby County won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Burnley score 0.9 goals a game and let in 2.0. Derby County score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Burnley games and 13 of Derby County games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Burnley form

Burnley have 0 wins, 8 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Derby County form

Derby County have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Burnley to score about 1.6 goals and Derby County about 1.1. That points to Burnley to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Burnley to win and Over 2.5 at 3.27.

Questions people in Kenya ask

Who will win Burnley vs Derby County?

Our prediction for Burnley vs Derby County is Burnley to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Burnley vs Derby County?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Burnley to score 1.6 goals and Derby County 1.1.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby County?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Burnley last 20 games and 11 of Derby County last 20.

How are Burnley playing?

Burnley have 0 wins, 8 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Burnley vs Derby County?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Good to know: Answers change as prices move. Every page is checked again every 30 minutes.

18+Read this before you bet

  • There are no sure bets. Every tip on this page is a chance worked out from data about Burnley against Derby. A tip at 70 percent still loses about three times in ten. Anyone selling a sure bet or a fixed match is lying.
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