The End of Tanking
The NBA has introduced new draft lottery rules for the 2026 to 2027 season. The goal is simple. Teams can no longer win by losing.
The league has set up flat lottery odds for teams with the fourth to tenth worst records. There is also a relegation zone. The three worst teams in the league will now get worse odds of getting a top draft pick. In addition, the lottery will now draw the first 16 picks instead of just the first four. These changes aim to stop teams from intentionally losing games at the end of the season to get better draft picks.
Fewer Blowout Games
One major result of these rules will be fewer blowout games. Last season, 281 games were decided by 20 points or more, which was a record. That meant 22 percent of all games were blowouts.
The blowout rate was especially high from February to the end of the season. During that time, a third of the games involving the worst teams ended in massive defeats. With the new rules, the worst teams have no reason to keep losing. They might even fight hard to win games just to stay out of the relegation zone. This means we should see much more competitive games in February, March, and April.
Tighter Standings and Real Rosters
We will also see much tighter standings. Last season, playoff teams got easy wins against teams that wanted to lose. The Trail Blazers went 16-2 against the bottom six teams to finish 42-40 overall. The 76ers went 17-1 against those same teams to finish 45-37.
Without these easy wins, the gap between the top and bottom teams will shrink. This will leave more teams stuck in the middle of the standings. Fans will also see more familiar faces on the court late in the season. Teams will no longer shut down their stars to play unknown players. Last April, teams like the Jazz and Grizzlies filled their lineups with players on ten day contracts. That practice should end now that the incentive to lose is gone.
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