A Complicated Departure
When the Boston Celtics traded Jaylen Brown last summer, the move provoked strong reactions. Fans expressed outrage, but analysts started a deep debate about his actual value on the floor.
Brown built an impressive record in Boston. He earned five All Star selections, won a Finals MVP award, and finished sixth in the 2026 regular season MVP voting after averaging a career high 28.7 points per game.
However, advanced numbers painted a different picture. According to Cleaning the Glass data, the Celtics recorded a better net rating with Brown off the court in seven of his ten seasons in Boston, including all of his last four years there. Brown now prepares to face his former team on Tuesday when the 76ers play the Celtics.
Understanding On Off Numbers
Modern NBA front offices collect massive amounts of tracking data, from simple points and rebounds to shot quality and footspeed. The goal is finding players who help their team outscore opponents rather than individuals who just gather big personal numbers.
Sometimes traditional stats and advanced metrics do not align. For example, Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero averages more points, rebounds, and assists than teammate Franz Wagner. Yet Banchero has posted a negative or neutral on off split in every season of his career, while Wagner has finished with positive splits every year. The difference comes mainly on defense, where Orlando has allowed fewer points per possession with Wagner playing.
Defensive specialists like Alex Caruso and OG Anunoby have built strong reputations by recording excellent on off numbers. Still, league analysts warn that early season sample sizes can mislead. One Eastern Conference analyst noted that about two seasons, or 10,000 possessions, are needed before this data becomes reliable.
Making Sense Of Player Impact
Raw on off figures carry strong natural biases. Analysts use adjusted models like regularized adjusted plus minus to clean up the numbers and judge a player accurately.
These models factor in many variables. They account for home court advantage, opponent shooting percentages, and whether a defense plays in front of its own bench. Most importantly, they adjust for who else is on the floor. Two years ago, Christian Braun finished third in on off swing partly because he shared most of his minutes with Nikola Jokic, who ranked first.
Former Jazz analyst Taylor Snarr created estimated plus minus to better isolate true individual impact by combining box score stats with adjusted on off data. For teams evaluating stars like Brown, these numbers offer a clear look beyond basic box scores.
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