The Sacking Season Returns To Old Trafford
Manchester United look set to replace another manager. Michael Carrick appears to be under threat, with the club standing above the relegation zone on goal differential alone. Even after a win against AS Roma in the Champions League, Carrick had seemed near tears at the end of matches before Tuesday.
This is the 14th season since United last won the Premier League. The cycle of sacking coaches has become familiar. Ruben Amorim lost his job last January. Erik ten Hag was let go two years ago before Halloween. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer left before Thanksgiving, and Jose Mourinho was dismissed before Christmas. Whoever replaces Carrick will be the ninth manager trying to meet expectations since Sir Alex Ferguson left.
Assessing The Value Of A Great Coach
Can any manager solve the problems at Old Trafford? Analytics offer some answers. Former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham wrote in his book that a great manager brings about the same value as a good player.
Last season, Arsenal won the league with 85 points, while West Ham were relegated with 39 points. Star players offer roughly seven points more than relegation level replacements. A 2025 study from the Sloan Sports Analytics conference looked at team performances from 2017 through 2024 across Europe's top five leagues. The study showed that Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola added more value above squad expectations than any other coaches.
The Need For A Complete Club Structure
Guardiola built success at Manchester City, though his time there includes 114 charges against the club. Klopp built winning teams at Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool without being the richest club in the league. Both teams got worse after Klopp left.
However, Klopp succeeded because he worked with strong backroom teams. Liverpool convinced him to sign Mohamed Salah instead of Julian Brandt. Dortmund provided young stars like Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels, Marco Reus, and Ilkay Gundogan. Manchester United have suffered from poor choices off the pitch since 2013, proving that even an elite manager needs proper support to win.
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