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Are Correct Score Predictions To Be Trusted? This is What You Need To Know.

| 28.07.2020
Are Correct Score Predictions To Be Trusted? This is What You Need To Know.

Did you know that the average sports bettor wins just around 48% of their bets? To make a profit, you may need to hit upwards of 54%. That is why you need a prediction site to help you make the right moves. However, with many promising more than they can deliver, it is good to know what you should be looking out for. So, should you ever trust correct score predictions?

African guys surprised won football bet

Correct score betting involves predicting the exact score. Because of the many odds possible, bookmakers tend to limit how many goals you can predict a team to score. Correct score betting is also highly popular with bettors, due to the high rewards associated with correct predictions. However, correct score betting is notoriously difficult to get right.

Correct Score Markets

Correct Score Double

In this market, a punter places a bet for two correct scores from two games. As a result, the odds and payouts are greater.

Correct Score Multi

In this bet, three or more correct scores must come in for you to be successful. Similarly, the odds and rewards for these bets are huge. The risks are high too.

Modeling correct score

The odds for correct score betting are longer than the match odds. Even the most common scores like 1-1, 1-0, or 2-1 have occurred less than 12% of the time throughout English Premier League history. Hence, calculating correct scores is very difficult. Poisson distribution, coupled with historical data, provides is one method used in calculating the most likely score in a match. However, this model does not allow for numerous factors such as club circumstances, games status, and subjective evaluation of the change of each team during the transfer window are completely ignored. The correlations are also ignored. For lower league games, these factors are important areas of consideration.

While many bettors love the appeal of a big win offered by correct score betting, you must recognize that you will have a far smaller chance of winning. The system for calculating the odds is far easily manipulated by the bookmakers.

Then there is the issue of match-fixing.

Sports betting continues to grow in popularity, and with more gambling, the more attempt to control outcomes. Match-fixing is a common problem in any sport. It involves paying off players and match officials to influence the outcome of a scheduled game. The outcome usually opposes the most obvious predictions, thus causing virtually most punters to lose their money. The Sportsradar, a world-leading sports integrity service provider, predicts that 1% of all matches are fixed. There are instances that live bets placed by bookmarkers during the match do not reflect recalculated odd for a match. In most cases, this can be an indication of fraud where the pitch activities are manipulated in favor of a certain outcome.

match fixing scam

Of course, one of the solutions to match-fixing is the use of data. Data analytics can be used to monitor unusual betting patterns, which at times, are an indication of match-fixing.
As you can see, calculating the correct score is not 100% accurate, and many other elements can affect the match results. Correct score predictions are thus hard to make.

Sure Bets

A sure bet allows you to benefit from the differences found between odds set between bookmakers. It is spreading your money on all possible outcomes of a certain event. But as they say, 'the bookies always win.' While the odds of winning might be in your favor, the bookmakers always set the odds in their favor, making it hard for the betting prediction sites to offer 'sure' tips.

Sure, bets are different for each bookmaker, and thus the predictions are also different from one site to another. The calculations for sure bets are simple. You take the best odds being offered for the Favorite and the Underdog, and divide each into 1. If the result is less than 1, then you have a sure-bet. While the formula works the same across the board, it is likely to be biased. Many possible outcomes are possible. 

The internet is full of predictions sites that promise value bets of 80-90% prediction success.
You are at times at a loss to trust or not to trust these betting predictions sites.

Here is what you need to look out for in prediction websites:

1. Reliability of the betting tools

Betting is a game of chance. It's about making educated guesses. Having a tool that helps in making these determinations is key to enhancing your chances of winning. Kenyaprediction.com is one such site. The website offers some of the betting insights based on data analytics, mathematical modeling, and algorithms. The tools help tipsters offer predictions with a high degree of accuracy up to 85% success rate.

2. Information

Information is key in placing winning bets. Sadly, there are many prediction sites out there with limited information to help you make informed decisions. Look at the sites that provide the trends and patterns of the various leagues and the bookmakers' analysis.

Kenyapredictions.com screenshot football prediction info

3. Consistency

If you find that the prediction site provides inconsistent predictions all the time, chances are they are not as credible as they want you to believe. Before relying on such a site, is it crucial to check the record of success rates of the predictions made by a website over time?

4. Social validation

You can use social media to check what other punters are saying about the prediction site. People's comments can inform on the quality of the prediction services offered by the predictions sites.
Making money betting on sports can be tough. However, many sports bettors consistently win, while the professionals make a good living off of sports betting.

The key is to have a strategy in your betting and do proper research before placing your bets. Know when you take a tip and use it to your advantage. Technology is advancing; it can only get better. Good luck.

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